Research

The line: little information is lost if instructors assess students with only a few grades (Distinction, Merit, Pass) instead of many (A+, A, A-, B+, …).  Current version.  Results. Powerpoint slide deck.

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line is the title.  Current version.  Results.

(wiith Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel).  The line: negative interest rates havn’t hurt bank profits.  Forthcoming, European Economic Review.  Current version.  CEPR DP 13,010.  NBER WP 25,004.  Key output.  Shorter Powerpoint presentation.  Longer Powerpoint presentation.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

Commentary by Cechetti and Schoenholtz.

The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don’t lead to export booms.  Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.  Current version.  Online appendices.  NBER WP 24,817.  An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748.  Powerpoint presentation.  Key output.  Data.

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

Less technical and easier to read version. CEPR Policy Insight No. 100 (data and output; PowerPoint)

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: it’s tough to find pre-2008 “early warning” indicators of countries that suffered big recessions in 2008-09.  European Economic Review 2011.  CEPR DP 7901.  NBER WP 16,243.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  A PDF presentation is available.  A combined longer presentation is available.  The STATA-11 data set.  Key output.

• •   If you’re interested in work like this, check out “Looking for a Needle in a Haystack” by Tai-kuang Ho.
  • Also see “Weathering the Crisis” by Cecchetti, King and Yetman.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009.  NBER WP 13,988.  CEPR DP 5942.  A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox.  A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output.  A related paper “International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce” is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Furceri, Hannand and Ostry, from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Lopez and Spiegel, from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

(from Vox)

(with Matthieu Chavaz).  The line: banks that received TARP funds made more loans inside the districts of their congressional representatives.  Review of Finance 2019. Longer version (PDF); slightly shorter version. Less technical and easier to read version. CEPR DP 11,595.  NBER WP 22,806.  Key output; data; Powerpoint presentation.  Cato Research Brief 67.

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Hameed, from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Spiegel, FRBSF Economic Letter)

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Kleymenova and Wieladek, from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (with Glick, FRBSF Economic Letter)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

• Coverage in Economist.

Less technical and easier to read version.

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

(with Christoph Moser). The line: regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer.  Journal of Economic Integration, and Edward Elgar in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.)  CEPR DP 8993. Less technical and easier to read version. A draft is available  Key output is available.

Less technical and easier to read version. (also available in German)

(with Tomasz Wieladek)   The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.  A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision.  Journal of Finance, 2014.  (here’s the version in their style).  NBER WP 17073 (from NBER).  CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR).  Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England).  A non-technical version is available from VOXEU.   Overhead slides are available for a presentation.  A web-only appendix is available.  Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al.  Key output is available.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

• If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks” by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and “The Flight Home Effect” by Gianetti and Laeven.
• Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

Less technical and easier to read version.

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

A draft is available as a PDF file.

Less technical and easier to read version. (from FRBSF Economic Letter)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version. (from Vox)

Less technical and easier to read version.

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

(wiith Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel).  The line: negative interest rates havn’t hurt bank profits.  Forthcoming, European Economic Review.  Current version.  CEPR DP 13,010.  NBER WP 25,004.  Key output.  Shorter Powerpoint presentation.  Longer Powerpoint presentation.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

Commentary by Cechetti and Schoenholtz.

(with Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens)  The line: the global financial cycle explains little variation in capital flows.  International Monetary Fund Economic Review 2019.  Current shorter version (for publication, without all appendices).  Current longer version.  NBER WP 23,699.  CEPR DP 12,075.  BIS WP 661.  IMF WP 17/193.  Key output.  Data.  Long PowerPoint presentation for seminars. NBER presentation.  Short PowerPoint presentation for conferences.  Coverage in Financial Times.

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry).  The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.  Current version.  Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389.  NBER WP 25,042.  Data set, basic program and output.  PowerPoint presentation.

Coverage by Livemint, Economist

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009.  NBER WP 13,988.  CEPR DP 5942.  A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox.  A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output.  A related paper “International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce” is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: international loans follow trade patterns.  IMF Staff Papers 2004.  NBER WP 9285.  CEPR DP 3539. A current version is available as a PDF file (here are the derivations).  Overhead slides for transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s also a PowerPoint presentation.  Supporting output. The data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright.

The line: sovereign default is followed by shrinking trade.  One of JDE‘s top-10 cited papers during 2005-09.  Journal of Development Economics 2005.  FRBNY Staff Report No 142, CEPR DP 3157, HKIMR WP 4/2002, NBER WP 8853.  A longer draft is available as a PDF file, as is a more condensed version. The data set is available in STATA 7.0 format.  Details on Paris Club renegotiations are available as an Excel spreadsheet. Sample output covering Table 1 (including descriptive statistics from Appendix 2) and the new Table 4c is available.  Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

• • Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris at Columbia Economics are circulating a critique “Is it Punishment?  Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade.”  My response is available as a PDF file.
  • You may also be interested in “Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment” by Mitchener and Wedienmier.
  • Another recent reference/critique is “The Trade Costs of Default” by Eduardo Borensztein and Ugo Panizza.

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services.  A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.

The line: since soft power helps exports, unpopular leaders like Trump lower exports of their countries.  Current version.  Review of International Economics 2019.  Earlier versions circulate as CEPR DP 13,139.  NBER WP 25,439.  Data set.  Key output.   Powerpoint Presentation.

Coverage by FAZ, CNBC

The line: even if the S in BDS is BS, the B is not.  In Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy (van Bergeijk and Moon, eds; Edward Elgar 2018).  Current version (PDF).  Key output; STATA data set. 

The line: countries that are seen to be a force for good by others, export more.  Economics and Politics, 2016.  Current version (PDF).   CEPR DP 10,713.  NBER WP 21537.  Key output; STATA data set.

• • Coverage by Bloomberg;  LSE blog; Washington Monthly; the Week; more from Bloomberg.

(with Christoph Moser)   The line: stock markets rise for RTAs between countries that already export a lot, and for poor countries.  European Economic Review, 2014.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  NBER WP 17415.  CEPR DP 8566.  Key output and data for final version.  Online appendix.  Slides for a presentation.

• • Coverage by Economist.

The line: barriers to trade like tariffs and quotas don’t change much over the business cycle.  Economic Policy 2013.  NBER WP 18062.  CEPR DP 8937.  Curent version, available as a PDF file; the original draft is also available.  Powerpoint slides are available.  Current draft: key output; STATA data sets; Figures.  Original draft: key output;  STATA data sets.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: countries that try to host mega-events may really be trying to signal trade liberalization.  Economic Journal 2011.  The original version is available as a PDF file, as is a revision, both longer and shorter versions of a second revision, and a set of overhead slides.  Sample output is available for the original paper  and the revision.  The key STATA data sets are available.  CEPR DP7248; NBER WP 14,854.    NPR Coverage.

• • In the press/blogosphere at: Vox; New York Times Freakonomics; Wall Street Journal; Marginal Revolution; Pravda; Guardian; Chicago Magazine; The Atlantic.
  • If you’re interested in this area, there’s a challenge by Maennig and Richter, and another by Rishav Bista .

• •   If you’re interested in work like this, check out:
• • • “The Impact of Mega-Sport Events on Tourist Arrivals” by Johan Fourie and Maria Santan-Gallego
  • • “The Impact of Visibility on Trade: Evidence from the World Cup” by Bayar and Schaur

The line: I review the evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership.  In Is the World Trade Organization Attractive Enough for Emerging Economies? (edited by Zdenek Drabek).  A draft is available as a PDF file as is a marginally different version for the Handbook of Economic Integration (edited by Miroslav Jovanovic).

The line: embassies and consulates have a small positive effect on exports.  The World Economy 2007.  NBER WP 11111.  CEPR DP 4953.  A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision.  The zipped data set is available (along with the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets).  Key STATA output is available for the original draft, and for the revision.  The paper is summarized in the August 2005 NBER Digest.  Forbes covered this in 9/2005 (easy to read).  Corriere della Sera covered this in 9/2005 (easy to read … if you speak Italian).  Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

• • If you’re interested in this, you may want to check out “Measuring the Impact of Regional Export Promotion: The Spanish Case” by Gil-Pareja, Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
    • Another related paper is “State Visits and International Trade” by Volker Nitsch
  • • Also of interest is “The Impact of Embassies and Consulates on Tourism” by Gil-Pareja, Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
  • • More papers of relevance; “Diplomatic Relations and Trade Reorientation in Transition Countries” by Maurel and Afman; “The Effect of Foreign Service on Trade Volumes and Trade Partners” by Segura-Cayuela and Vilarrubia; “Is Economic and Commercial Diplomacy Useful for Developing Countries?” by Yakop and van Bergeijk; “Export Promotion Agencies” by Lederman, Olarreaga, and Payton; “Sizing up the Uneven Impact of Embassies on Exports” by Ferguson and Forslid.

The line: membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility.  Open Economies Review 2005.  NBER WP 10207.  CEPR DP 4246.  MAS OP 27.  The original draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision.  The zipped bilateral and multilateral data sets are available in STATA 8 format.  Sample output is available in a zipped file.  Output and data specific to the revision are available in a zipped file.

The line: the OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade.  Review of International Economics 2005.  CEPR DP 3764.  A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revised version.  The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB).  Note that there is a (small) error in the data set.  Supporting zipped output is available as are a few checks mentioned in the revision.

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more liberal trade policy.  Journal of International Economics 2004. NBER WP 9347.   CEPR DP 3659.  A draft of the paper is available as a PDF file as is a revised version.  This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest.   Tables are available as a PDF file.  The data set is available in 3 formats: a) zipped STATA 7.0 format; b) zipped ASCII (Stata dictionary file); c) zipped ASCII (State outsheet format; spreadsheet-style).  Supporting output is available in zipped ASCII files as is supplemental material (output and a graphic) added later.

• • If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

1. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,
2. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett
3. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members.  American Economic Review 2004.  NBER WP 9273.  CEPR DP 3538. HKIMR WP 18/2002.  MAS Occasional Paper No. 24.  RSC No. 2003/15 (EUI).  A fuller draft is available as a PDF file, as is a shortened version.  This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest.  Supporting output.  The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB).  Note that there is a (small) error in the data set.  The Penn World Table mark 6 is available elsewhere.  Overheads are available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint show is also available.  I sometimes refer to the actual GATT; here are some GATT articles of interest.  There’s been coverage on BBC TV and radio, in the Financial Times (there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist on Nov 14, 2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), the Economist (here’s an easy version to print), a reprise from The Economist (easier to print), Bloomberg, Libération, Foreign Policy, and the Financial Post (here’s an easier version to print).  If you’re into non-sequiturs, check out The Road to Surfdom.  I’ve been called “irreverent and contrarian” in front of the House Ways and Means committee (goodness me!).  The CEPR has a press release.

• • Arvind Subramanian and Shang-Jin Wei have circulated their critique “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” NBER Working Paper 10,024.  My response is available as a PDF file.  Supporting output and the multilateral data sets (in STATA 8.2 format) are available in a zipped file.
  • Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz are circulating a critique entitled “Membership has its Privileges: The Impact of GATT on International Trade”.  My early response is available as a PDF file  a revision will be published in the AER as “The Gatt: It’s Everywhere You Want it to Be.”  Supporting output is available in a zipped file.
  • Another pair of critiques are “Evaluating WTO Accessions” and “WTO Membership and Market Access” by Evenett, Gage and Kennett.
  • If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

1. “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler,
2. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,
3. “WTO and Growth” by Li and Wu,
4. “GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification” by Liu,
5. “Russia and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and Lissovolik, and
6. “How Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.
7. “Trading Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein.
8. “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.
9. “Joining the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.
10. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett
11. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul
12. “Do the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade? by Herz and Wagner
13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.
14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.
15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.
16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.
17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade” by Kim.  My response is available as a PDF file.
18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler.
19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?” by Jayjit Roy.
20. “Agriculture and the WTO” by Boys and Grant.
21. “Does WTO Matter for the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade” by Dutt, Mihov and Van Zandt.
22. “Does the GATT/WTO Promote Trade?  After All,Rose was Right” by Esteve-Perez,Gil-Pareja, and Llorca-Vivero.

(with Jeffrey Frankel)  The line: trade isn’t bad for the environment.  The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005.  NBER WP 9201.  The full version is available as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly short version.   The Stata data set is available, as is key output.  Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002.

• • If you are interested in this work, you should read “The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

(with Robert Feenstra and James Markusen)  The line: there’s more to gravity than you think.  NBER WP #6804, CEPR DP No. 2035, Canadian Journal of Economics 2001 (available to CJE subscribers). A draft is available as a PDF file as is a revision of the paper. The STATA bilateral export data set is available as is sample output (which covers Table 2).  Note that there was a (small) error in the original data set.

(with Robert Feenstra) The line: countries and goods can be ordered by export timing.  Review of Economics and Statistics 2000, NBER WP 5975, CEPR DP 1629. Available as a PDF File. The raw data is available in a STATA data set. Country rankings are also available in a STATA data set.  Baseline goods’ rankings are available as a STATA dictionary (ASCII).

(with Christoph Moser). The line: regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer.  Journal of Economic Integration, and Edward Elgar in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.)  CEPR DP 8993. Less technical and easier to read version. A draft is available  Key output is available.

(with Tomasz Wieladek)   The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.  A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision.  Journal of Finance, 2014.  (here’s the version in their style).  NBER WP 17073 (from NBER).  CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR).  Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England).  A non-technical version is available from VOXEU.   Overhead slides are available for a presentation.  A web-only appendix is available.  Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al.  Key output is available.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

• If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks” by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and “The Flight Home Effect” by Gianetti and Laeven.
• Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.

Less technical and easier to read version. (the view of The Economist, a reprise from The Economist, and the view of Libération)

The line: Asians export in an order.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 1997. Available as a PDF File.

The line: more trade leads to tighter business cycle synchronization … and there’s little more that’s clear. Available as a PowerPoint presentaion.

(with Zsolt Darvas (website) and György Szapáry).  The line: similar fiscal deficits lead to similar business cycles.  NBER WP 11580.  CEPR DP 5188.  Magyar Nemzeti Bank WP 2005.3.  Tanszéki Tanulmányok 2005/4.  A draft is available as a PDF file. A Hungarian version is available in Közgazdasági Szemle 2005.  The main data is available in a zip-file.  It is in 3 formats: STATA 8, STATA outsheet (ASCII, suitable for spreadsheets), and STATA dictionary (ASCII).   Key output is available in a zip-file.  Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file, and (slightly different) as a PowerPoint show.  An accessible version (if you speak Hungarian) is available in Vilaggazdasag (Nov 22, 2005).

•    You may also be interested in “Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth” by Davide Furceri.

for The New Palgrave.  The line: I survey work on currency unions.  A draft is available as a PDF file.

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: trade integration causes business cycle synchronization.   Economic Journal 1998. Also circulating (in a less technical format, with application to Sweden) as “Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency ” NBER WP 5700 CEPR DP 1473. The STATA data is available. The most current version is available as a PDF File. A longer version is also available as a PDF File. A short press release is available as a PDF File.

o    If you’re interested in this work, you may want to check out:

1. “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas
2. “Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” by Kose and Yi
3. “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087)
4. “Determinants of Business Cycle Synchonisation Across Euro Area Countries” by Böwer and Guillemineau, and
5. “Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries” by Inklaar, Jong-a-Pin, and de Haan.
6. “Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners” by Blonigen, Piger, and Sly.

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: Yes, since trade integration causes business cycle synchronization.   The European Economic Review 1997. Available as a PDF File.

Economic Policy 1998. Available as a PDF File.

The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone.  This is a variant of “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” and was used for the National Bank of Poland’s Report on Adopting the Euro.  Available as a PDF file.  The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.

The line: countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions.  Journal of Financial Transformation 2007.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The STATA data set is available as is key output.  There is a small error in the data set.

•    A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

(with Jeffrey Frankel)  The line: currency unions might raise trade and output a lot.   Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002.  NBER WP 7857.  CEPR DP 2631 (more up to date than the NBER version). A current draft is available as a PDF file.  The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats); (take note of the errors in my EP data set, from which it was derived), as is the panel (country/year) data set. Zipped sample output (for Table 2) is available.  A longer version of Table V is available.  Overhead transparencies for a seminar are available as a PDF file.  Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Our op-ed piece in the Financial Times is available (in German) as is coverage of our piece in Canada’s National Post and coverage in the Independent.

o    Dani Rodrik has a comment on our paper, which states that our results are sensitive to outliers, institutions and geography.  Here is our response, which shows the robustness of our findings and the zipped sample output that underlies it (and provides even more sensitivity analysis).

o    Santana-Gallego, Ledesma-Rodriguez, Perez-Rodriguez, and Cortes-Jimenez have written “Does a Common Currency Promote Countries’ Growth via Trade and Tourism?“

(with Charles Engel) The line: currency unions are different.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2002.  NBER WP 7872.  CEPR DP 2659.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set.  The data sets are documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation note is available here.  Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped sample output is available as is a comprehensive set of output files (with programs embedded).

o    You may want to check out “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas.

o    You may also want to check out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for Clustered Errors” by Colin Cameron and Natalia Golotvina

The line: more than you want to know about currency unions.  In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (Bank of Canada, 2001).  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set

(with Antonio Fatás) The line: currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy.  CEPR DP 2692, IMF Staff Papers 2001.  The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII format.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   Sample output (corresponding to Table 3) is available.

The line: if you want an accurate estimate of the EMU effect on trade, include lots of countries and years.  Open Economies Review, 2017.  Current version; shorter version (PDF).  NBER WP 22,678.   CEPR DP 11,532.  Powerpoint presentation.  Key output; data.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out “The Euro’s Trade Effect: A Meta-Analysis” by Polak

(with Reuven Glick).  The line: EMU leads exports to rise by 50% even with 55,000 fixed effects  European Economic Review, 2016.  Early versions available as CEPR DP 10,615.  NBER WP 21535.  Current version (PDF).  Powerpoint presentation; Heidelberg version; Valencia version.  Key output; STATA data sets; extended STATA data set on export with dis-aggregate CUs/RTAs; STATA data set used in final revision (note on data error).

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out “The Currency Union Effect” by Larch, Wanner, Yotov and Zylkin

The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA.  Available as a PDF file.  The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.

The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles.  Available as a PDF file.  The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.  Printed in Towards the First Decade of Economic and Monetary Union (36. Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2008).

Click here to download »

Click here to download »

(with T.D. Stanley).  The line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot.  Journal of Economic Surveys 2005.  Available as a PDF file.  Earlier versions are available as: NBER WP 10373.  CEPR DP 4341.  Available in early draft form as a PDF file.  The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.  Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file.

The line: even more people find currency unions raise trade a lot.  MAS OP 22.  Available as a PDF file.  The Excel data set is also available, as is sample output.

The line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot.  In Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade, Financial Development, and Stability (Alexander, Mélitz, and von Furstenberg, eds, Oxford, 2004).  Available in draft form as a PDF file.  The Excel data set is also available, as is sample output, and a set of overheads for a talk (as a PDF file).

(with Reuven Glick).  The line: leaving a currency union halves trade.   The European Economic Review 2002.  A revised draft is available as a PDF file; earlier versions are available as CEPR DP 2891 and NBER WP 8396. The (relevant part) of the data set is available as a STATA 7.0 data set.  Sample output (for Tables 1-5) is also available.  Overhead transparencies for talks are available as a PDF file.

o    Another paper of relevance is “Is Gravity Linear?” by Henderson and Millimet

The line: currency unions raise trade a lot. This is in The World Economy 2002 and is also available as a PDF file.  It is a response to Volker Nitsch’s paper “Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade” which is also in The World Economy 2002.

(with Eric van Wincoop)  The line: currency unions raise trade and welfare a lot.  American Economic Review 2001. A draft is available as a PDF file  as is a slight revision with more results; the key table (that tabulates the effects of a number of currency unions on trade and welfare) is available as a 1-page PDF file. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.  The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII (dictionary) formats).  The data and Gauss programs used to compute the results in Table 2 are available.

The line: currency unions raise trade a lot. Economic Policy 2000. This paper is available as a PDF file.  A more accessible version is also available as a PDF file; it is in California Management Review 2000.  The abstract and a non-technical summary are available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available.  The data set is also available as a (large) ACII dictionary file.  A few (small) errors in the original data set have been identified by scholars.  Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.  An early version is available as IIES Seminar Paper No. 678.  Later versions are available as NBER WP 7432 and CEPR DP 2329.  A short non-technical paper is available as a FRBSF Economic Letter “Do Currency Unions Increase Trade?”  This paper was the source for the Wall St. Journal quotation and the Economist quotation.  Overhead transparencies for my talk on this issue are available as a PDF file.

• Torsten Persson has circulated a critique that questions my results using matching techniques; the final version is in Economic Policy 2001.  Here is my original response, which questions his methods and confirms my results using a variety of techniques and a new data set.  The overhead transparencies I used at the conference are also available. A more refined final version of the response is in Economic Policy 2001; some of the key output for it is available.
• Volker Nitsch has written another critique that is in The World Economy 2002.  Here is my quick response to his initial draft: my formal response “Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn’t Blown Up” is also in The World Economy 2002 and is also available as a PDF file.
• Yet another critique comes from Michael Pakko and Howard Wall. Their article was published without my being offered the possibility of a response, so my formal response will appear only on the web.  Since the authors simply add dyadic fixed effects to my original data set, the real response is my paper with Glick.
• Brendan Walsh has written (with Rodney Thom) a paper that focuses on the consequences of the dissolution of the Irish link to sterling in 1979 as a case study inconsistent with my general findings. My response is in my paper with Glick.
• The Economic Research Forum provides another critical summary of some of this research.
• While I have (as of September 2001) responded to all reasonable comments/critiques of my work, I make no commitment to doing so in the future.  I’m no longer working directly on the topic, and life goes on!
• Silvana Tenreyro has circulated as her job-market paper “On the Causes and Consequences of Currency Unions”. She asserts (among other things) that my estimate (of the effect of currency union on trade) is halved when trade data is averaged across years; I am currently unable to replicate this finding which may be the result of her using a less complete (WTDB) data set than is available (though the IMF’s DoT).  Here’s my output.
• Euro-know provides a critique of some of my research and characterizes it as heroic and honest but warns that I may be “a pawn in a ruthless power game.”  Gosh.
• William Bomberger has a critique associated with decolonization.  Here’s my response as a PDF file.
• Bo Malmberg published an influential op-ed in Dagens Nyheter (here’s an English translation); here’s my response.
• Albrecht Ritschl and Niko Wolf are circulating “Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period”  (CEPR DP 4112) which claims to find evidence of endogeneity in the currency union effect.  It may be there, but they certainly haven’t found it since they equate fixed exchange rates with currency unions (according to them Germany was in a currency union with New Zealand in the interwar period).  Check out my brief response available as a PDF file.
• If you’re interested in the topic, you may want to check out: “Geography, Trade and Currency Union” by Jacques Mélitz (CEPR DP 2987), “Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach” by Parsley and Wei (NBER WP 8468), “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087), “Dollarization and Trade” by Klein (here’s my response to Klein), “On the Impact of a Common Currency on Bilateral Trade” by Levy Yeyati, “Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade” by López-Córdova and Meissner, “Optimal Currency Areas” by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro (the final version gives even larger estimates!), “Currency Unions and Gravity Models Revisited” by Christie Smith, “The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from the European Union” by Micco, Stein, and Ordoñez, “Common Currency as an Export Promoting Strategy” by Ayako Saiki (Brandeis), “Language and Foreign Trade” by Jacques Melitz, “Have a Break …” by Volker Nitsch, “Currency Unions and Trade” by Peter Kenen, “Disintegration and Trade” by Fidrmuc and Fidrmuc (ULB), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?” by Bun and Klaassen (Amsterdam), “Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies” by Vinhas de Souza (Kiel), “Monetary Unions and Trade” by Lochard (Sorbonne), “Trade volume effects of the euro” by Flam and Nordström (IIES), “The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices” by Baldwin and Taglioni, “The Impact of Euro on Trade” by de Nardis and Vicarelli, “The Euro and Trade” by Graham, Helliwell, Kano, Murray, and Schembri (Bank of Canada), “Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade” by Klein and Shambaugh, “Trade Effects of the Euro: Evidence from Sectoral Data” by Baldwin, Skudelny, Taglioni and “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages” by Lee and Shin, “Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications” by Anderson, Ferrantino and Schaefer (here’s my response), “Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment” by Choi and Wei, “The Currency Union Effect on Trade and the FDI Channel” by de Sousa and Lochard, “One Market, One Money, One Price?” by Allington, Kattuman, and Waldmann (Cambridge).  (If you want to add something to this list, just send me an e-mail with a linkable paper of relevance).
• An excellent recent (May 2005) review of this entire literature with special reference to the Euro is Richard Baldwin’s “The Euro’s Trade Effect.”  This critique (and my initial work) has been covered by the Economist and the Financial Times.  I also recommend Jeff Frankel’s comments on this paper.
• More papers of relevance: “Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa” by Tsangarides, Ewenczyk, and Hulej; “Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade” by Adam and Cobham; “What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows?” by Baxter and Kouparitsas; “Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance: A Latin American Perspective” by Edwards.
• Philip Lane has produced a fine summary of the Real Effects of EMU that I recommend.
• Jeff Frankel has written a fine analysis of the size of the trade effect of EMU that I like a lot.
• Volker Nitsch continues to write interesting work in this area.
• Thomas Baranga‘s job-market paper is relevant.
• Theo Eicher and Henn have a “revised benchmark” estimated in a relevant paper.
• Joan Costa i Font is circulating “Revisiting the ‘Rose Effect:’ does it pass the Spanish Regional heterogeneity Test?”
• Phillip Baur and Viktor Winschel are circulating “Bayes Network Analysis of Trade Effects of Currency Unions and Free Trade Agreements“
• Jayjit Roy is circulating “On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions”
• Santos Silva and Tenreyro are circulating “Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect”
• Meixin Guo (Tsinghua) is circulating “Hierarchical Bayesian Method for the Gravity Equations“

The line: entry into EMU might raise British trade a lot. This was one of the “Submissions from Leading Academics” commissioned for HM Treasury to assess the effects of British entry into EMU (I’m #21 starting on p209, but my work is much criticized by others).  The underlying research was discussed in the Treasury’s EMU Study “EMU and Trade” and mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech of June 9 2003, as well as the more entertaining shadow chancellor’s critique (Michael Howard, now leader of the British Conservative party).

Less Technical and easier to read version. (two views from The Economist and their view of the Baldwin critique)

The line: currency unions might raise Swedish trade a lot.  Less technical and easier to read version. Also available in the official (more photogenic color but larger) version); it was commissioned by the Swedish Employer’s Confederation.  A press release by Svenskt Näringsliv is available.  This report, along with a panel discussion, generated articles in Entreprenör, an editorial in Svenska Dagbladet and a slew of articles (by me, Lars Calmfors, and Carl B Hamilton) in Dagens Nyheter. (disputed by various Swedes)

The line: currency unions might raise British trade a lot. Less technical and easier to read version. Commissioned for Britain in Europe.  This paper was discussed by, among others, the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, the Irish Times, and the Scotsman.  It is reprinted in Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter.

The line: the TSE and the NYSE stock markets don’t seem very integrated.   In Canada in the Global Economy 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file, Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB).  Sample output is available in a zipped file.

(with Robert P. Flood).  The line: stock markets don’t seem very integrated.   Journal of Monetary Economics 2005.  Earlier versions are available as NBER WP 10805.  CEPR DP 4684.  The original version is available as a PDF file, as is a dramatic revision.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB).  Sample output is available in a zipped file; here are some (monthly, dis-aggregated, GMM, without intercepts) estimates from the 2005 revision.  An appendix on a permanent-transitory decomposition of idiosyncratic shocks is available as a PDF file.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critiques: 1) Marshall’s “Comment” and 2) Parsley and Schlag’s “Measuring Financial Integration via Idiosyncratic Risk: What Effects are We Really Picking Up?”

(with Robert P. Flood).  The line: the S&P isn’t integrated with the NASDAQ.  Journal of the European Economic Association 2005.  NBER WP 9880.  CEPR DP 4027.  IMF WP 04/110.  A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a (Feb. 2004) revision of the paper, a later (Sept. 2004) revision), and a final (March 2005) revision.  The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats.  The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file.  The E-Views programs and sample output for the current (not lagged) normalization are available in a zipped file.  E-views materials for the second revision are available in a zipped file.  The original Fama-French factors are available at Ken French’s website.  Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file, as are slides for a general talk on asset integration with examples from different papers in PDF format and as a PowerPoint presentation.

(with Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens)  The line: the global financial cycle explains little variation in capital flows.  International Monetary Fund Economic Review 2019.  Current shorter version (for publication, without all appendices).  Current longer version.  NBER WP 23,699.  CEPR DP 12,075.  BIS WP 661.  IMF WP 17/193.  Key output.  Data.  Long PowerPoint presentation for seminars. NBER presentation.  Short PowerPoint presentation for conferences.  Coverage in Financial Times.

The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don’t lead to export booms.  Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.  Current version.  Online appendices.  NBER WP 24,817.  An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748.  Powerpoint presentation.  Key output.  Data.

(with Allaudeen Hameed) The line: negative nominal interest rates haven’t affected exchange rate behavior.  Current version; shorter version.  Key output; data.  Powerpoint presentation.  CEPR DP 11,498, Pacific Economic Review 2018.

(with Anya Kleymenova and Tomasz Wieladek).  The line: Yes!  There’s more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis.    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016.  Current version (PDF).  Key output.  Powerpoint presentation.  CEPR DP 11,108.  NBER WP 21,981.

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it’s easy in theory to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis.  Global Journal of Economics.  A draft is available as a PDF file.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008.  Pacific Economic Review, 2010 (best paper award winner).  A draft is available as a PDF file.  NBER WP 15358.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7466.  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: it’s easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why.  Japan and the World Economy, 2012.  NBER WP 15357.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7354.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   A simpler version is available (from Vox)/  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

• • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis” by Eduardo Acosta-Gonzalez, Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero.

(with Robert Flood).  The line: stock markets are just as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.”  In Globalization and Economic Integration (Gaston and Khalid editors, Edward Elgar 2010).  An earlier version circulated as “Why So Glum?  The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market” CEPR DP 6714.  A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: the further a country is from financial activity, the more volatile its business cycle.  Journal of Development Economics, 2009.  NBER WP 14,336.  A current version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as are earlier long and short versions, and overhead slides.  The STATA data set is available as is key output.

• • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “Financial Remoteness and the Net External Position” by Schmitz (ECB WP No. 1330).

The line: Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed.  Journal of International Money and Finance 2007.  NBER WP 12,711.  CEPR DP 5854.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The data sets are available as is key output.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file.  International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF).  Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF).

•    A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: offshore financial centers are good for domestic bank competition, even if they encourage tax evasion and money laundering.  Economic Journal 2007.   NBER WP 12044.  CEPR DP 5081.  A draft of the original version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as is a revision.  The zipped Stata data set is available (along with many of the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets).  Key output for the original is available in a zipped file, as is a set of output files for the revision.  Overhead slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.  Economist coverage available (as a PDF file).  A press release is available as a PDF file.

(with Robert P. Flood).  The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline.  A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB).  The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file.   Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

The line: the Tokyo stock exchange isn’t always integrated.  Monetary and Economic Studies 2004.  IMES Discussion Paper No. 2004-E-1.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   The zipped data sets are available in Excel (raw), STATA 8 (easy), and E-Views 4 (estimation) formats (2.0 MB).  The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

(with Robert P. Flood).  The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated.  Forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance.  A preliminary draft is available as a PDF file.   The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available.  A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic.  A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis.  Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file.

The line: UIP still works badly.  (with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in Tel Aviv, March 2001.  CEPR DP 2943, , and IMF WP/01/207.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  A shorter version that focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF Staff Papers 2002.  A version is also in Economic Policy in the International Economy (Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press, 2003). The data set is available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file.  The pooled data set is also available as a STATA data set.  The data sources are described more fully in a PDF file.  Sample output for UIP tests is available.

(with Olivier Jeanne) The line: noise traders make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable. CEPR DP 2142 NBER WP 7104 RBNZ G99/2, Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002. A draft is available as a PDF File. The E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data sets used in the original working paper are available, as are the data sets (in ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision.  Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders”

(with Robert Flood) The line: we estimate the peso puzzle.   Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

(with Robert Flood)  The line: macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do. The Journal of Monetary Economics 1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a PDF File.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009.  NBER WP 13,988.  CEPR DP 5942.  A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox.  A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output.  A related paper “International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce” is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: international loans follow trade patterns.  IMF Staff Papers 2004.  NBER WP 9285.  CEPR DP 3539. A current version is available as a PDF file (here are the derivations).  Overhead slides for transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s also a PowerPoint presentation.  Supporting output. The data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright.

• Coverage in Economist.

(with Tomasz Wieladek)   The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.  A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision.  Journal of Finance, 2014.  (here’s the version in their style).  NBER WP 17073 (from NBER).  CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR).  Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England).  A non-technical version is available from VOXEU.   Overhead slides are available for a presentation.  A web-only appendix is available.  Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al.  Key output is available.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

• If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks” by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and “The Flight Home Effect” by Gianetti and Laeven.
• Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

(with Barry Eichengreen).  The line: China has little to fear from leaving its fixed exchange rate policy.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The STATA-11 data set is available; key output is available.  Coverage by: Wall St. Journal; NPR.  The VoxEU version.

(with Barry Eichengreen) ) The line: Northern interest rates provoke Southern banking crises.   In Money, Factor Mobility and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell (edited by Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld), 2001, Cambridge: MIT Press. A draft is available as a PDF File. The STATA data is available. NBER WP 6370. CEPR DP #1828.

(with Jeffrey Frankel), The line: currency crashes are pretty heterogeneous.  The Journal of International Economics 1996, NBER WP 5437 CEPR DP 1349. The working paper version is available as a PDF file. The STATA data is available as either a STATA data set or as an ASCII STATA dictionary file. A sample estimation program is available.

(with Reuven Glick) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade.   NBER WP 6806, CEPR DP 1947, Journal of International Money and Finance 1999. A working draft is available as a PDF File. The Data set is available in an Excel spreadsheet. A short version of the research (focusing on understanding the incidence of attacks) is available, as is a longer version (which also has analysis of attack intensity and sensitivity analysis), and a more accessible version for non-economists in Risk.

(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade.   NBER WP 5681 CEPR DP 1453. Click for the STATA data. Available as a PDF File. Part of this paper was published in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 1996. A sample program and its output log are available.  Replication requires this file of trade weights.  Economist coverage.

(with Barry Eichengreen) The line: countries who suffer successful currency attacks suffer big output losses.  In Managing Currency Crises (edited by Jeffrey Frankel and Michael Dooley). The data set is available as an (ASCII) dictionary file.   A draft is available as a PDF file.

(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz)  The line: currency crises are heterogeneous.   Economic Policy 1995, available as a PDF file. The data set is available as an (ASCII) dictionary file.

o    If you’re interested in this type of crisis measure, you may want to check out “Measures of Currency Crises: A Survey” by Angkinand, Li and Willett.

The line: No, there’s no tradeoff.  NBER WP 5219 CEPR DP 1240, International Journal of Finance and Economics 1996. The STATA data set is available.

The line: a first pass at modeling currency crises. (with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz), in The New Trans-Atlantic Economy (edited by Canzoneri, Ethier and Grilli) 1996, NBER WP 4898 CEPR DP 1060. The STATA data set is available.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008.  Pacific Economic Review, 2010 (best paper award winner).  A draft is available as a PDF file.  NBER WP 15358.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7466.  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: it’s easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why.  Japan and the World Economy, 2012.  NBER WP 15357.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7354.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   A simpler version is available (from Vox)/  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

• • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis” by Eduardo Acosta-Gonzalez, Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero.

The line: UIP still works badly.  (with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in Tel Aviv, March 2001.  CEPR DP 2943, , and IMF WP/01/207.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  A shorter version that focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF Staff Papers 2002.  A version is also in Economic Policy in the International Economy (Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press, 2003). The data set is available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file.  The pooled data set is also available as a STATA data set.  The data sources are described more fully in a PDF file.  Sample output for UIP tests is available.

The line: we survey out work on crises. (with Barry Eichengreen). NBER Reporter 1999. Available as a PDF file.

The line: Yes.  Delivered as a public lecture while I was the Professorial Fellow in Monetary Economics at Victoria University and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Available as a PDF File. Versions of this have been published as an op-ed and a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 1999.

(wiith Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel).  The line: negative interest rates havn’t hurt bank profits.  Forthcoming, European Economic Review.  Current version.  CEPR DP 13,010.  NBER WP 25,004.  Key output.  Shorter Powerpoint presentation.  Longer Powerpoint presentation.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

Commentary by Cechetti and Schoenholtz.

The line: monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014.  Current version (PDF); NBER WP 19,632; CEPR DP 9684.  Powerpoint slides (5-slide version); Key output; STATA data set.

• In the blogosphere: Fatas; Krugman;Romanchuk; Gagnon
• Alex Kiermeier, Stephanie Mitchell, Sarah Schroder, and Paul Symon have found some duplicates in the data set and some other issues.

The line: international financial integration had little effect on the cross-country intensity of the 2008-09 financial crisis.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  ADBI WP 341.  A Powerpoint presentation is available.  The STATA-11 data set.  Key Output.

(with Tomasz Wieladek)   The line: the British authorities rescue large banks, and the rescues work. A draft is available.   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012.  Presentations slides are available as a PDF file.  Sample output for key tables.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication.

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it’s hard in practice (but not in theory) to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis.  Journal of International Economics.  NBER WP 17359.  CEPR DP 8557.   An updated draft is available as a PDF file.  Technical appendix.  Overhead Slides.  The abbreviated version of the STATA-11 data set; the complete data set.  Key output.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: it’s tough to find pre-2008 “early warning” indicators of countries that suffered big recessions in 2008-09.  European Economic Review 2011.  CEPR DP 7901.  NBER WP 16,243.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  A PDF presentation is available.  A combined longer presentation is available.  The STATA-11 data set.  Key output.

• •   If you’re interested in work like this, check out “Looking for a Needle in a Haystack” by Tai-kuang Ho.
  • Also see “Weathering the Crisis” by Cecchetti, King and Yetman.

The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don’t lead to export booms.  Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.  Current version.  Online appendices.  NBER WP 24,817.  An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748.  Powerpoint presentation.  Key output.  Data.

(with Allaudeen Hameed) The line: negative nominal interest rates haven’t affected exchange rate behavior.  Current version; shorter version.  Key output; data.  Powerpoint presentation.  CEPR DP 11,498, Pacific Economic Review 2018.

(with Anya Kleymenova and Tomasz Wieladek).  The line: Yes!  There’s more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis.    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016.  Current version (PDF).  Key output.  Powerpoint presentation.  CEPR DP 11,108.  NBER WP 21,981.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008.  Pacific Economic Review, 2010 (best paper award winner).  A draft is available as a PDF file.  NBER WP 15358.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7466.  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: it’s easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why.  Japan and the World Economy, 2012.  NBER WP 15357.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7354.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   A simpler version is available (from Vox)/  A PowerPoint presentation is available.  The STATA-10 data set.  Key output.

• • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis” by Eduardo Acosta-Gonzalez, Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero.

(with Tomasz Wieladek)   The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.  A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision.  Journal of Finance, 2014.  (here’s the version in their style).  NBER WP 17073 (from NBER).  CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR).  Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England).  A non-technical version is available from VOXEU.   Overhead slides are available for a presentation.  A web-only appendix is available.  Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al.  Key output is available.  The data set cannot be posted (it’s confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I’ll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn’t reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

• If you are interested in work like this, consider reading “Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks” by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and “The Flight Home Effect” by Gianetti and Laeven.
• Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

(with Mark Spiegel).  The line: a long-maturity, nominal, domestic-currency bond market lowers inflation.  International Journal of Central Banking, 2018.  Earlier versions available as CEPR DP 10,124.  NBER WP 20,494.  Current version (PDF).  Powerpoint presentation.  Key output; STATA data set; some data on bond dates.

(with Barry Eichengreen).  The line: China has a little to fear from leaving its fixed exchange rate policy.  NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  Slides for a presentation are available.  The STATA-11 data sets are available; key output is available.

The line: we don’t know much about the causes or consequences of different exchange rate regimes, and that’s OK.  Journal of Economic Literature 2011.  CEPR DP 7987.   A draft is available as a PDF file. Slides for a talk.  The STATA-11 data set.  Key Output.

(with Francis Breedon and Thorarinn Petursson).   The line: small rich countries shouldn’t have floating exchange rates.  Open Economies Review.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The STATA-11 data set is available.

The line: inflation targeting seems to increase business cycle synchronization.  In “Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia” (Barro and Lee, editors, Oxford University Press, 2011).  A draft is available as a PDF file as is a set of overhead slides.  The zipped STATA data set is available, as is key output.

(with Robert Flood).  The line: countries that target inflation tend to have more synchronized business.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  Journal of International Money and Finance 2010.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7377.   A simpler version is available (from Vox).  Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.  The STATA data set is available.  Sample output is available.

(with Ilian Mihov).  The line: more durable monetary regimes, like inflation targeting, deliver better inflation than more fragile regimes (like fixed exchange rates).  Economics 2008.  CEPR DP 6529.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The STATA data set is available as is key output.

(with Robert Flood) The line: good short-run exchange rate models aren’t macroeconomic. Economic Journal 1999 CEPR DP 1944. A draft is available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

(with Suktiandi Supaat and Jacob Braude).  The line: more fertile countries have more appreciated real exchange rates.  Canadian Journal of Economics 2009.  NBER WP 13,263.  CEPR DP 6312.  A revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier version, and overhead slides.  The STATA data set is available as is key output.  Covered in the Business Times (easy to print), as well as the South China Morning Post and Today.

The line: Mundell’s trinity doesn’t work so well in practice.  The Journal of International Money and Finance 1996, NBER WP 4630 CEPR DP 929.  The STATA data set and output are available.

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: PPP works OK at medium and long horizons.  The Journal of International Economics 1996, NBER WP 5006 CEPR DP 1128. The STATA data set.

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: we survey nominal exchange rate determination.  In The Handbook of International Economics.

The line: monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014.  Current version (PDF); NBER WP 19,632; CEPR DP 9684.  Powerpoint slides (5-slide version); Key output; STATA data set.

• In the blogosphere: Fatas; Krugman;Romanchuk; Gagnon
• Alex Kiermeier, Stephanie Mitchell, Sarah Schroder, and Paul Symon have found some duplicates in the data set and some other issues.

The line: countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions.  Journal of Financial Transformation 2007.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The STATA data set is available as is key output.  There is a small error in the data set.

•    A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

(with Antonio Fatás) The line: currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy.  CEPR DP 2692, IMF Staff Papers 2001.  The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII format.  A draft is available as a PDF file.   Sample output (corresponding to Table 3) is available.

(with Robert Flood).  The line: stock markets are just as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.”  In Globalization and Economic Integration (Gaston and Khalid editors, Edward Elgar 2010).  An earlier version circulated as “Why So Glum?  The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market” CEPR DP 6714.  A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

The line: Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed.  Journal of International Money and Finance 2007.  NBER WP 12,711.  CEPR DP 5854.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  The data sets are available as is key output.  Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file.  International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF).  Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF).

•    A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

(with Olivier Jeanne) The line: noise traders make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable. CEPR DP 2142 NBER WP 7104 RBNZ G99/2, Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002. A draft is available as a PDF File. The E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data sets used in the original working paper are available, as are the data sets (in ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision.  Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.

• • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders”

(with Robert Flood) The line: we estimate the peso puzzle.   Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

(with Robert Flood)  The line: macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do. The Journal of Monetary Economics 1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a PDF File.

The line: small countries and large countries have similar social and economic characteristics.  Monetary and Economic Studies 2006.  IMES DP 2006-E-10.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  Key output is available in a zip-file.  The Stata data set is available in a zip-file.

The line: the size of a country’s population has little effect on well-being.  Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 2006.  NBER WP 12191.  CEPR DP 5350.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  Key output is available in a zip-file.  The key Stata data sets are available in a zip-file.   Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

• • If you are interested in this work, you should read “Country Size and Business Cycle Volatility: Scale Really Matters” by Davide Furceri and Georgios Karras.

The line: the distribution of country sizes is mysteriously similar to that of city sizes.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2006.  NBER WP 11762.  CEPR DP 5235.  A draft is available as a PDF file.  Key output is available in a zip-file.  The key Stata data sets are available in a zip-file.  Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

• A new critique is “Gibrat’s Law for Countries” by Gonzalez-Val and Sanso-Navarro.
• If you’re interested in this, you should check out “Testing for Zipf’s Law” by Carlos Urzua.
• A presentation of this paper in honor of John Quigley is available, as are the overheads.

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(with Garret Christensen, Allan Dafoe, Edward Miguel, and Don Moore)  The line: actual de facto data sharing increases citations, but a stated de jure policy on data sharing does not.  PLOS|One, Dec 2019.

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Download Presentation. Paper also available.

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(with Don Moore)  The line: no, empirical articles published in journals that require data sharing do not receive more citations.  Current version.  Pre-registration.  Key output.  Data.

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(with Jeffrey Frankel).  Link to the RBA Conference Volume.  A draft is available as is a PowerPoint presentation.  The STATA data set.  Key output is available.

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with Antonio Fatás and Ilian Mihov

The line: quantitative goals for central banks help lower inflation.  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2007; also NBER WP 10846, CEPR DP 4445, and ECB WP615.  The paper is available in both short and extended versions as PDF files; here’s the latest iteration.  A draft of the original version is available as a PDF file.  Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file. The zipped Stata data set is available.  Key output is available in a zipped file.

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Background for chapter III of the September 2002 World Economic Outlook.  The informal background paper is available as a PDF file; please do not quote without permission!  Supporting output.  The data set is described in a PDF file and is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

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(with George Akerlof and Janet Yellen).  Available as a PDF file.  In Economics for an Imperfect World (Essays in Honor of Joseph E. Stiglitz) (Arnott, Greenwald, Kanbur, and Nalebuff, eds, MIT Press, 2003).  This paper has been adapted from NBER WP 3385.

in Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001 is available as a PDF file, as are the overhead slides and the data (in Excel spreadsheet and ASCII formats) and the program used in the talk.

Scandinavian Journal of Economics.  Available as a PDF file.

(with Benjamin Hermalin). Available as a PDF File. NBER WP 6886.

The line: more trade leads to tighter business cycle synchronization … and there’s little more that’s clear. Available as a PowerPoint presentaion.

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The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services.  A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.

(with Jeffrey Frankel)  The line: trade isn’t bad for the environment.  The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005.  NBER WP 9201.  The full version is available as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly short version.   The Stata data set is available, as is key output.  Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002.

• • If you are interested in this work, you should read “The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

(with Matthieu Chavaz).  The line: banks that received TARP funds made more loans inside the districts of their congressional representatives.  Review of Finance 2019. Longer version (PDF); slightly shorter version. Less technical and easier to read version. CEPR DP 11,595.  NBER WP 22,806.  Key output; data; Powerpoint presentation.  Cato Research Brief 67.