Potential Effects (% GDP) of: % ’95 Trade with: ’95 Trade Dollarization Join EMU $ Zone € Zone (% GDP) Trade GDP Trade GDP Albania 3 75 47 3 1 70 23 Algeria 13 62 59 15 5 72 24 Angola 50 34 110 109 36 74 25 Australia 14 12 42 12 4 10 3 Bangladesh 20 21 37 15 5 15 5 Belize 44 8 103 90 30 16 5 Brazil 23 24 15 7 2 7 2 Burundi 7 75 33 4 1 49 16 Cambodia 2 8 80 3 1 13 4 Canada 76 5 73 111 36 8 3 Chile 21 17 55 24 8 19 6 China 13 11 40 10 3 9 3 Colombia 38 18 36 27 9 13 4 Congo Dem. Rep. 13 57 59 16 5 67 22 Costa Rica 53 17 86 91 30 30 10 Denmark 4 49 64 6 2 63 21 Dominican Rep. 76 7 63 95 31 9 3 Egypt Arab Rep. 18 38 53 19 6 41 13 Ethiopia 12 53 38 9 3 40 13 Fiji 10 4 115 22 7 9 3 Gambia 2 51 132 6 2 135 45 Ghana 12 40 60 15 5 48 16 Guinea 15 56 48 14 5 54 18 Guyana 28 12 211 120 39 50 16 Haiti 67 13 36 48 16 9 3 Honduras 52 17 91 95 31 31 10 Iceland 11 34 67 15 5 46 15 India 17 29 28 9 3 16 5 Indonesia 13 15 52 13 4 15 5 Iran Islamic Rep. 1 40 36 1 0 29 10 Israel 25 38 69 34 11 52 17 Jamaica 53 9 136 145 48 24 8 Japan 27 12 17 9 3 4 1 Jordan 7 24 126 18 6 62 20 Kenya 6 35 73 9 3 50 17 Korea 22 11 67 30 10 14 5 Kuwait 19 24 104 39 13 51 17 Lao PDR 2 16 61 2 1 20 7 Lebanon 12 51 77 18 6 78 26 Madagascar 4 55 55 4 1 60 20 Malawi 8 26 73 12 4 37 12 Malaysia 17 10 194 68 22 40 13 Mauritania 5 60 112 11 4 134 44 Mauritius 1 36 122 2 1 87 29 Mexico 79 6 59 93 31 7 2 Mongolia 8 17 106 16 5 35 12 Morocco 5 59 61 6 2 72 24 Mozambique 7 22 88 13 4 40 13 Myanmar 3 5 3 0 0 0 0 Nepal 12 22 59 14 5 26 9 New Zealand 13 11 59 16 5 13 4 Nicaragua 38 16 91 69 23 29 10 Nigeria 35 34 30 21 7 21 7 Norway 6 43 70 9 3 61 20 Pakistan 12 20 36 9 3 15 5 Papua New Guinea 3 11 103 6 2 23 8 Paraguay 19 8 48 19 6 8 2 Peru 24 18 28 13 4 10 3 Philippines 24 10 81 39 13 16 5 Romania 4 62 59 5 2 73 24 Rwanda 23 50 36 16 5 36 12 Saudi Arabia 20 21 72 29 10 31 10 Seychelles 0 16 104 1 0 33 11 Sierra Leone 14 54 39 11 4 42 14 Singapore 16 10 356 114 38 71 24 South Africa 10 29 50 10 3 29 10 Sri Lanka 17 16 82 27 9 26 9 Sweden 8 48 76 12 4 72 24 Switzerland 8 61 66 11 3 81 27 Tanzania 6 26 63 7 2 33 11 Thailand 14 13 90 25 8 23 8 Trinidad & Tobago 42 9 97 81 27 18 6 Tunisia 3 75 93 5 2 141 46 Turkey 9 46 44 8 3 41 13 Uganda 4 58 32 2 1 38 12 United Kingdom 12 53 58 13 4 62 20 United States n/a 14 24 n/a n/a 7 2 Uruguay 9 18 38 7 2 14 5 Venezuela 50 10 48 48 16 10 3 Vietnam 4 16 83 6 2 26 9 Yemen Rep. 7 13 73 10 3 18 6 Zambia 5 17 91 9 3 31 10 Zimbabwe 4 21 91 8 3 38 13 Average 4 48 69 5 2 54 18 Currency Boards Argentina 16 23 17 5 2 8 3 Bulgaria 5 56 103 11 4 114 38 Djibouti 3 38 99 6 2 74 24 Hong Kong China 16 10 303 97 32 63 21 Dollarized Panama 12 7 199 47 15 27 9 Recent Dollarizers Ecuador 45 16 58 53 17 19 6 El Salvador 50 14 59 59 19 16 5 Guatemala 44 10 45 39 13 9 3 EMU Members Austria 4 69 78 6 2 108 36 Finland 7 35 68 10 3 48 16 France 6 56 45 5 2 50 17 Germany 7 46 46 6 2 43 14 Greece 7 64 43 6 2 56 18 Ireland 11 35 134 30 10 93 31 Italy 6 51 51 7 2 52 17 Netherlands 6 57 100 12 4 114 38 Portugal 4 67 74 5 2 99 33 Spain 5 61 47 5 2 57 19 Potential EMU Joiners Hungary 4 71 76 6 2 107 35 Poland 3 60 50 3 1 61 20 CFA Franc Zone Benin 5 45 63 6 2 57 19 Burkina Faso 4 71 41 3 1 59 19 Cameroon 3 69 46 3 1 63 21 Central African Republic 2 72 49 2 1 70 23 Chad 6 75 76 9 3 114 38 Comoros 2 70 64 2 1 89 29 Congo Rep. 14 77 128 35 11 196 65 Cote d’Ivoire 7 73 77 11 4 112 37 Equatorial Guinea 21 45 154 66 22 137 45 Gabon 46 33 93 86 28 61 20 Guinea-Bissau 2 73 47 2 1 69 23 Mali 4 51 60 5 2 60 20 Niger 10 71 40 8 3 57 19 Senegal 5 69 69 6 2 95 31 Togo 6 42 75 9 3 63 21 Uses Indian Rupee Bhutan 3 13 77 4 1 20 7 ECCA Member St. Kitts and Nevis 21 2 123 51 17 6 2 Notes 1: Currency Union predicted to triple trade. 2: Each percentage point in trade/GDP predicted to increase real GDP per capita by .33%. This is a longer version of Table V from Frankel and Rose “An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income”
