Scenario-Based Decision Making for Senior Leaders

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When & Where
	Saturday, July 12, 2025 9:00 am to 6:00 pm

	NUS Business School Mochtar Riady Building BIZ1 3-3 15 Kent Ridge Drive Singapore 119245 (Map)

Navigating evolving state of play – A scenario–based approach for businesses

We live in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) and Never Normal world. The challenges brought by recent events such as Trade War 2.0 further exacerbated the situation. Understanding the key drivers of future trends and their associated risks and uncertainties in the contextual environment are ever more crucial in improving the quality of decision making for executives in enterprises, big and small. Scenario Planning and Development, through the uncovering of critical uncertainties, helps companies see more clearly what are the key risks oncoming that could materially shape their businesses, hence aptly develop the necessary skills and capabilities to adapt to these eventualities.

By employing scenario planning, the robustness of your current plans can be tested against the plausible outcomes and flush out issues that need to be critically managed in order to either arriving at the best possible outcomes (best-case scenario) for the business or mitigating the worst-case scenario.

Participants will:

Understand scenario methodologies and its applications through case studies (Energy & Sustainability, Trade War and South China Sea)
Explore Key Success Criteria of scenario planning
Identify signals, signposts, and associated risk events along scenario pathways

Participants will be awarded a certificate of completion by CGS.

Course Fee:

SGD $1,308 (This amount is inclusive of 9% Goods & Services Tax)

The inaugural class is only open for NUS EMBA Chinese students and alumni, space is limited and would be on a first-come first-serve basis.

Enquiries may be directed to Mr Kong Zhen Wei at cgs@nus.edu.sg

Speakers

Prof Lawrence Loh

Prof Lawrence Loh is Director, Centre for Governance and Sustainability (CGS) at the NUS Business School, National University of Singapore (NUS). He is also a Professor of Strategy and Policy at NUS Business School and Visiting Professor at the Wealth Management Institute in Singapore.

Prof Loh received a PhD in Management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His thesis on technology governance was awarded first prize in the worldwide doctoral dissertation competition in the field of management information systems.

At CGS, Prof Loh leads the Sustainability Reporting initiative covering ASEAN and Singapore corporations. He also steers the Singapore Governance and Transparency Index and the ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard projects. Prof Loh heads the studies on board and workplace diversity and business integrity.

Prof Loh is a regular commentator on governance and sustainability for many leading global and local media. Over the years, he has served as a judge for various prestigious sustainability awards in Asia and Singapore.

Prof Loh teaches Governance and Sustainable Business for NUS Executive MBA program. He regularly conducts executive development programs in governance, sustainability and strategy for board directors, senior management and business professionals.

Mr Ignatius Lim

Guest Speaker

Before his role as Head, International/Government Relations APAC Shell, Ignatius was Commercial Counsellor at the Embassy of Singapore based in Beijing, as well as China Group Director of International Enterprise (IE) Singapore [now Enterprise Singapore]/Ministry of Trade & Industry. Prior to this, he held several senior roles in IE including Chief Information Officer, Director of China Strategic Relations, Regional Director for Eastern China, and Market Consulting Director.

Before joining the government, he started his career as a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Business Administration, National University of Singapore.

In Shell, Ignatius deals with a range of issues including non-technical risk (NTR) assessment/mitigation for major projects, geopolitical analysis on issues that are material to the company, reputation/License-to-Operate (LTO) crisis management, and scenario planning and development.

Outside of Shell, Ignatius serves as a member in the FutureChina Committee and Audit Committee of Business China, a non-profit organization established in promoting cultural and economic linkages with China.

Mr Tim Zhang

Tim is currently founder and CEO at Edge Research Pte Ltd, helping institutional investors and corporate clients to better tackle the evolving geopolitical dynamics that would impact their investment and/or business. Tim has close to 20 years of professional experience spanning across investment, banking, and energy. In his most recent stint at GIC, he focuses on AI, Blockchain and strategic partnerships. Before joining GIC, Tim was a director at Standard Chartered Bank, focusing on public private partnerships leveraging emerging technologies. Tim also worked in Shell in their global strategy team focusing on scenario development and growth strategies.

Tim was recently appointed Senior Fellow at NUS Business School’s Centre for Governance and Sustainability. In Tim’s personal capacity, he has been a panel assessor on MAS’ Innovation Acceleration Grant and Pay-it-forward mentor at SFF. He is also a mentor with SMU Business Incubation Generator program.