{"id":1809,"date":"2020-02-28T08:05:01","date_gmt":"2020-02-28T08:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bschool.nus.edu.sg\/dean\/?p=1809"},"modified":"2020-02-28T08:28:17","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T08:28:17","slug":"notes-on-other-things-the-wto-might-be-doing-besides-liberalizing-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bschool.nus.edu.sg\/dean\/2020\/02\/28\/notes-on-other-things-the-wto-might-be-doing-besides-liberalizing-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Notes on Other Things the WTO Might be Doing (besides liberalizing trade)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Andrew K. Rose UC Berkeley NBER and CEPR<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Revised Draft:\u00a0November 18, 2003<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve argued in a series of papers that the GATT\/WTO hasn\u2019t had much effect on either trade or trade policy (these papers and other relevant materials are available under &#8220;The Multilateral (GATT\/WTO) System and Trade&#8221; topic category in my <a href=\"https:\/\/bschool.nus.edu.sg\/dean\/research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Research webpage<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0Still, perhaps the WTO has other ambitions.\u00a0\u00a0One would like to examine the possible effects of GATT\/WTO membership on other international economic phenomena.\u00a0\u00a0At the top of the list are: capital flows, FDI, and services.\u00a0\u00a0In this brief memo I set out the issues associated with each.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Note: this is an informal, unpublished memo, on which I have not spent much time.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Capital Flows<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Bilateral capital flow data exist for flows between the\u00a0US\u00a0and the ROW.\u00a0\u00a0The website is\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ustreas.gov\/tic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">www.ustreas.gov\/tic\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Still, there are serious problems.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>The data set is available from 1988 onwards, and only for the\u00a0US\u00a0vis-\u00e0-vis the rest of the world.\u00a0\u00a0During this period of time, there were data for few countries that switched GATT\/WTO status, and few outsiders.\n<ul>\n<li>Outsiders:\u00a0Bahamas, Bermuda (?),\u00a0Lebanon,\u00a0Liberia,\u00a0Russia,\u00a0Syria<\/li>\n<li>Switchers:\u00a0Bulgaria,\u00a0Ecuador,\u00a0Guatemala,\u00a0Panama,\u00a0Venezuela\n<ul>\n<li>After 1999 or questionable:\u00a0China,\u00a0Taiwan, Czech Rep (?)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>There is no good bilateral model of capital flows<\/li>\n<li>The WTO doesn\u2019t say that it tries to liberalize capital flows<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>FDI<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Bilateral FDI data is available from the OECD from 1985-1999 <span class=\"MsoCommentReference\"><span style=\"font-size: 8.0pt;\"><a id=\"_anchor_1\" class=\"msocomanchor\" href=\"#_msocom_1\" name=\"_msoanchor_1\">[A1]<\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The gravity model probably works OK for FDI<\/li>\n<li>The WTO doesn\u2019t say that it tries to liberalize capital flows.\u00a0\u00a0That may not be a serious problem, since some FDI is either a substitute for or a complement to trade in practice.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Problems<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol>\n<li>All the FDI source countries are continuous GATT\/WTO members.\u00a0\u00a0Still, there are a few outsiders\/switchers in the host\/recipients<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>Switchers:\u00a0Mexico\u00a0(barely outside in the sample since it joined in 1986),\u00a0Morocco\u00a0(barely),\u00a0Costa Rica,\u00a0Panama,\u00a0Venezuela, UAE,\u00a0Hong Kong\u00a0(barely)<\/li>\n<li>Outsiders:\u00a0Algeria,\u00a0Libya,\u00a0Saudi Arabia,\u00a0Iran<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Results\n<ul>\n<li>Membership has no economically or statistically significant effect, if you use a standard gravity model estimated with standard panel data techniques.\u00a0\u00a0Results are in Table 1 below.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/faculty.haas.berkeley.edu\/arose\/WTOnontrade.zip\">The output is available here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Table\u00a01: Determinants of Log of Bilateral FDI Flows <span class=\"MsoCommentReference\"><b><span style=\"font-size: 8.0pt;\"><!-- [if !supportAnnotations]--><a id=\"_anchor_2\" class=\"msocomanchor\" href=\"#_msocom_2\" name=\"_msoanchor_2\">[AR2]<\/a><!--[endif]-->\u00a0 <\/span><\/b><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<table class=\"table-bordered table-striped\" style=\"max-width: 60%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Fixed Effects<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Random<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Effects<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Both in GATT\/WTO<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-.01<\/p>\n<p>(.16)<\/td>\n<td>.04<\/p>\n<p>(.15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>GSP<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.54<\/p>\n<p>(.78)<\/td>\n<td>-.11<\/p>\n<p>(.24)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Regional<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FTA<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.16<\/p>\n<p>(.19)<\/td>\n<td>.54<\/p>\n<p>(.19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Distance<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>.17<\/p>\n<p>(.14)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product Real GDP<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-2.79<\/p>\n<p>(.29)<\/td>\n<td>.43<\/p>\n<p>(.07)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product Real GDP p\/c<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.83<\/p>\n<p>(.30)<\/td>\n<td>-.17<\/p>\n<p>(.08)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Currency<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Union<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>5.04<\/p>\n<p>(1.57)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Common Language<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>.74<\/p>\n<p>(.29)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Land<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Border<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>2.38<\/p>\n<p>(.94)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Number Landlocked<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>-.37<\/p>\n<p>(.24)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Number<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Islands<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>.77<\/p>\n<p>(.22)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Land Area<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>-.03<\/p>\n<p>(.05)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Currently Colonized<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.43<\/p>\n<p>(.47)<\/td>\n<td>.55<\/p>\n<p>(.49)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Ever<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Colony<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>.90<\/p>\n<p>(.47)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>R<sup>2<\/sup><\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.37<\/td>\n<td>.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><small>Regressand: log FDI.\u00a0\u00a0Intercepts and year controls not reported.\u00a0\u00a02663 observations in 308 country-pairs.<\/small><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Services<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Bilateral service trade data exist, gathered by the OECD.\u00a0\u00a0The website is http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/EN\/document\/0,,EN-document-423-nodirectorate-no-1-32974-24,00.html<\/li>\n<li>Still, there are problems.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol>\n<li>The data set is available for two years only, 1998-99 and 1999-2000.<\/li>\n<li>The data exist for bilateral flows between the OECD (always members) and selected other countries.\u00a0\u00a0Still, some are not WTO members.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>Results\n<ul>\n<li>At least one country is always a WTO member (since it\u2019s OECD data and all OECD members are in the WTO now).\u00a0\u00a0But service trade with non-WTO members is higher with a coefficient of .38 (.18), barely significant.\u00a0\u00a0No sign that WTO membership encourages trade in services.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/faculty.haas.berkeley.edu\/arose\/WTOnontrade.zip\">The output is available here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Table 2: Determinants of Bilateral Service Flows <span class=\"MsoCommentReference\"><b><span style=\"font-size: 8.0pt;\"><!-- [if !supportAnnotations]--><a id=\"_anchor_3\" class=\"msocomanchor\" href=\"#_msocom_3\" name=\"_msoanchor_3\">[AR3]<\/a><!--[endif]-->\u00a0 <\/span><\/b><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<table class=\"table-bordered table-striped\" style=\"max-width: 60%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>One in GATT\/WTO<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.38<\/p>\n<p>(.18)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>GSP<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.30<\/p>\n<p>(.13)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Regional<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FTA<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-.16<\/p>\n<p>(.15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Distance<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-1.01<\/p>\n<p>(.08)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product Real GDP<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.96<\/p>\n<p>(.04)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product Real GDP p\/c<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.31<\/p>\n<p>(.05)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Common Language<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.99<\/p>\n<p>(.19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Land<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Border<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.02<\/p>\n<p>(.25)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Number Landlocked<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-.00<\/p>\n<p>(.13)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Number<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Islands<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.20<\/p>\n<p>(.13)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Log product<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Land Area<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-.01<\/p>\n<p>(.03)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Ever<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Colony<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.67<\/p>\n<p>(.37)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>R<sup>2<\/sup><\/strong><\/td>\n<td>.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><small>Regressand: log bilateral service trade (exports plus imports).\u00a0\u00a0Intercepts and year controls not reported.\u00a0\u00a0OLS estimation.\u00a0\u00a01053 observations.<\/small><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><small><br \/>\n[<a id=\"_msocom_1\" href=\"#_anchor_1\">A1<\/a>] We have it in \\res\\Spiegel\\pan&gt;\\res\\wto\\progs\\serv1.log<br \/>\n[<a id=\"_msocom_2\" href=\"#_anchor_2\">A2<\/a>] \\res\\wto\\progs\\fdi.log<br \/>\n[<a id=\"_msocom_3\" href=\"#_anchor_3\">A3<\/a>] \\res\\wto\\progs\\fdi.log<br \/>\n<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew K. Rose UC Berkeley NBER and CEPR Revised Draft:\u00a0November 18, 2003 &nbsp; I\u2019ve argued in a series of papers that the GATT\/WTO hasn\u2019t had much effect on either trade or trade policy (these papers and other relevant materials are available under &#8220;The Multilateral (GATT\/WTO) System and Trade&#8221; topic category in my Research webpage).\u00a0\u00a0Still, perhaps [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v18.0 (Yoast SEO v21.8.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Notes on Other Things the WTO Might be Doing (besides liberalizing trade) - Dean<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bschool.nus.edu.sg\/dean\/2020\/02\/28\/notes-on-other-things-the-wto-might-be-doing-besides-liberalizing-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Notes on Other Things the WTO Might be Doing (besides liberalizing trade)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Andrew K. 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